I find your suggestion that MON might increase its value by selling (or spinning off) the Roundup division to have merit... But I am not ready to fully concur until I develop a more comprehensive understanding of the relevant issues...
This may be nitpicking, but my contention is that MON will seek to increase its perceived shareholder value by accounting for the Roundup business as a discontinued operation under GAAP. Whether the eventual divestiture / spin-off does in fact add shareholder value depends, of course, on the terms.
MON is developing seed traits for dicamba- and glufosinate-tolerance as well as new formulations of dicamba and acetochlor. .... I think that it would be to MON’s advantage to have control of both the seed and the herbicide business... Thus, to me, this argues against your suggestion.
I don’t see why MON would need to retain control the herbicide business; instead, they could negotiate a paid-up license to the technology in perpetuity.
In the past two years, MON has increased its manufacturing capacity for Roundup (i.e. the Luling La plant) and has made investments to increase mining capacity for glyphosate raw materials in Idaho ... this goes counter to the idea that MON is phasing out the Roundup program.
I would argue that MON now sees this investment as a mistake.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”