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Uncommitted Voters Give Kerry Nod

NEW YORK, Sept. 30, 2004

Uncommitted voters who watched Thursday night’s presidential debate said John Kerry won the debate against President Bush, and most of those voters improved their opinion about the Democratic candidate because of the debate, according to a CBS News poll.

Forty-three percent of the uncommitted debate-watchers picked Kerry as the winner, while 28 percent chose Mr. Bush. Another 29 percent said it was a tie.

Kerry also made significant inroads on ratings for his potential to handle Iraq and on likeability, two areas where he had been trailing Mr. Bush.

Immediately after the debate, CBS News interviewed a nationally representative sample of more than 200 debate watchers assembled by Knowledge Networks who were “uncommitted voters” – voters who are either undecided about who to vote for or who have a preference but say they could still change their minds.

More than half of the uncommitted voters said that their image of Kerry had changed for the better as a result. Just 14 percent said their opinion of Kerry had gotten worse, and one-third did not change their opinion.

Mr. Bush, on the other hand, saw very little improvement in his image. Twenty-two percent have improved their image of Mr. Bush as a result of the debate, but just as many said their views of the president are now worse than before.

On the issue of ability to handle Iraq, Kerry was the clear winner. He had a 38-point jump by this measure. A majority of the uncommitted viewers, 52 percent, said after the debate that Kerry had a clear plan for Iraq. Thirty-nine percent said this about Mr. Bush. Before the debate, few thought either had a clear plan for dealing with Iraq.

The panel of uncommitted debate watchers evaluated the debate in real-time, marking favorable or unfavorable opinions of what they heard moment by moment.

Kerry's evaluations rose as he assailed the Bush administration's planning for the war and for asserting that the administration allowed 90 percent of the costs of the war to fall on the U.S. Kerry did especially well with women when he said that Mr. Bush had cut police at home while sending money to Iraq.

Women responded positively in the real-time evaluation when Kerry talked about strengthening U.S. ties with allies and the policy of pre-emption. When Kerry talked about finding al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, both men and women responded positively.

Still, more women think Mr. Bush can be trusted to protect the country from a terrorist attack than Kerry, by 62-52 percent. Seventy-one percent of men said Kerry could be trusted to protect the country, while 66 percent said the same about Mr. Bush.

Kerry also significantly improved his likeability. Six in 10 members of the sample now say Kerry is someone whom they would like personally, up from 45 percent before the debate. Fifty-six percent would like Bush personally. More women said they liked Kerry than Mr. Bush – while men were equally likely to say each candidate was someone they would like.

In the horse race, Kerry now leads Mr. Bush among uncommitted debate watchers by 38-28 percent as their choice for president in November. But nearly a third remain undecided.

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This CBS News poll was conducted online by Knowledge Networks among a nationwide random sample of 209 uncommitted voters – voters who don’t yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds – who have agreed to watch the debate. Knowledge Networks, a Silicon Valley company, conducted the poll among a sample of adult members of its household panel, a nationally representative sample given access to the Internet via Web TV. The questions were administered using the Internet.

This is a scientifically representative poll of undecided voters’ reaction to the presidential debate. The margin of sampling error could be plus or minus 7 percentage points for results based on the entire sample.

For detailed information on how CBS News conducts public opinion surveys, click here [ http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2001/07/02/opinion/main299401.shtml ].

©MMIV, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/01/opinion/polls/main646712.shtml