Profunds index and sector trading

[was Steve]

thats my thought too.

i dont often find myself in a full short position and rarely am i comfortable with it when i do. good thing is last time i did go ALL IN on the short side(9/10/04) i was very complacent and totally at ease. right off, that should have sent up flags in my head but it didnt. this time around i am very uneasy so that could be a good thing. a lot of it has to do with my big time desire to finish this quarter at a new ATH. that was lost today as my shorts lost more than my longs made.

heres my thoughts from the weekend after entering into the last all in short. the ndx rallied the next two days for 1.5%. fortunatley i made most of it back on wed when the market got whacked:

Posted by: Steve
In reply to: positiontrader who wrote msg# 17521
Date:9/11/2004 10:26:46 AM
Post #of 18580

how could i forget? i see it every time i pass a mirror (gg).

i find it very interesting the differences between my full short position for last friday and for next monday. last friday i was truly terrified of getting trampled and deliberated for an hour and a half on the decision of whether i would go out 50 or 100% short. thanks to intel it worked out fine and i was breathing again only 15 min into the AH session.

yesterday and still today, there is zero anxiety about this decision to go ALL IN. earlier in the day i was planning on a net 33% short position with 66% short indexes and 33% long sectors. by the end of the day the sectors i was eyeing had moved up soooo much that there wasnt a single one of the 18 i really cared to buy. so i started looking at all my short term sell signals and indicators. seven of eight gave short signals and the last one was marginal so i decided to go 100% short instead of the planned on 33%.

will it work out? history says yes, i just need the market to agree. or perhaps this calm is a bad thing and ill get murdered by a manic monday as ndx rallies hard.

i believe i have made my position clear on what i think is going to happen in the coming weeks but since its a saturday and wifey is still sleeping (her turn to make french toast today) ill ramble on.

this rally which was full planned on before we even bottomed at 1302, is nearing its end in time and points. upside target remains at 1440 or up another 2% from fridays close. timewise that target should be met by no later than 9/24/04 (which is the 6 week point) and probably earlier.

after that it is time to head back down. i think the election may tend to prevent 1302 from being taken before it occurs in november, but i believe 1302 is taken out before years end. if the market does top out at the proposed 1440, it shouldnt see a higher print in 2004 or 2005 and possibly as long as 2006