Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA:

Dew, I thought you would have thought that Momenta's chances for approval in 2009 would have been greater than 24% given Wheelers recent tone and "cautiously optimistic" about approval by the end of the year comments. With all the plant inspections complete and the FDA having everything they need to approve this product, 4 months seems ample time for the FDA to respond.

Actually, my table has 28% (24%+4%) for MNTA/NVS approval in 2009, although the 4% component for approval of multiple ANDA’s is not part of the best-case scenario.

I would have thought 24% chance before Rodman and Renshaw, and maybe up to 40-50% now for the best-case scenario occurring by the end if 2009.

If it were June or July, I would agree; however, with only 3.5 months left in the year, FDA action on the MNTA/NVS ANDA in 2010 rather than 2009 has become fairly likely. From a practical standpoint, however, this does not alter the way I’m managing my biotech portfolio; because FDA approval could come any day, I can’t afford to not be fully invested in MNTA at all times. I think traders such as wallstarb who are using TA to guide their actions with respect to MNTA are being penny-wise and pound-foolish.