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Re: randychub post# 83491

Saturday, 09/12/2009 9:08:42 AM

Saturday, September 12, 2009 9:08:42 AM

Post# of 257253
For rows in the table that represent a decisive FDA action, the probability in the rightmost column is larger than the probability in the leftmost column because the rightmost column has more time for the given action to occur. (This is the same reason a long-dated stock option is more valuable than a short-dated stock option.)

For rows in the table that represent a tempering FDA action or no action at all, the probability in the rightmost column is smaller than the probability in the leftmost column for exactly the same reason.


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