Biotech Values

[p3analyze]

3-year PML rate

Agreed BIIB discounted the actuarial estimate too quickly. However WSJ's number is at best a ball-park estimate, unless they have the exact number of patients still receiving tysabri at each PML case relative to their respective start date of tysabri therapy.

Nevertheless, this article paints a clearer picture and should dispel the more bearish prediction in the past regarding PML. It helps to hear that responding patients can be safely treated for 3 years. After 3 years, BIIB could institute a JC virus test. For sure JCV negative and responding patients will stay on the drug. JCV-positive patients should be able to allowed to continue at their own and physicians' discretion. I wouldn't be surprised eventually the majority of JCV positive patients will stay.

It wouldn't be too hard to calculate the real Tysabri sales potential if accurate statistics were available on eligible patient size, relapse-free interval, JC virus prevalence, etc. I suspect that number is going to be good enough to justify a higher ELN valuation.