there is a suit being filed by lehman against AIG and this should be a high profile case because it may set a precedent in how the CDS market is being handled. the hearing is scheduled for october 14th of 2009, so it's not that far away.
the unwinding of lehman could take years, so we don't know for sure when a settlement will come, but as the assets increase in value, and as various cases are tried and settled, the hope is that these shares will continue to rally off the lows.
obviously traders will try to play the swings along the way, and others will simply buy and hold.