Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: ALTH valuation

Management estimates peak sales to be around 350-450 million at around 70 - 100 K a pop. There appeared to be some serious efficacy concerns that even Adam. F, a big supporter of ALTH, thought it seemed like a close shave. About 90 million shares outstanding so whats a reasonable marketcap.

Well, the FDA still has to approve the drug and that is certainly no guarantee even with the panel recommendation. And even though they are developing the drug for multiple indications, ALTH is effectively a one-drug company. All told, that's a lot of risk to me for a company now with over a $700 million market cap (not including any after hours movement from today) whose sole drug is expected to have peak annual sales of $350-450 million if it is in fact approved.