Mish on July Max Pain
Max Pain
AJ and I agree. He must be reading my mind. Here is a post I did earlier on SI.
Max Pain is 27 but 26 is very close.
More than likely "da boys" make money regardless but currently the best guess is somewhere between 26 and 27 is where they make the most money.
It is possible IMO that last Friday was "it" and thay just shorted the crap out of everything on the opening ramp and will just let it fall like last month. That is not really my call but it certainly is possible.
Howver, given the limited upside potential IMO, from this point the downside risk seem greater than upside gain to me and I am heavy in cash. At QQQ 24, if the market shows any inclination towards rally, I will hop on with a few QQQ calls.
The "radish" OE expectation would be another pullback or sideways nonsense for a day or two then a rally friday and continuing Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Not sure how this differs from turnips call, but at any rate I do think QQQ 27-28 is likely to be a brick wall if it even gets that close again. If more people load up on QQQ 26 calls we could just die right here or at another attempt at 26.
M
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In another post somewhere I suggested the possibility that after the OE ramp(if it comes at all) we just fall like last month. It is indeed a reasonable sceanrio.
M
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