SwingTrade Member Forum

[Rawnoc]

Dow now up 1000 points in a month and a half since this charting post. How ironic that it lectures about ignorance LOL

Posted by: Wizard Date: Wednesday, July 01, 2009 3:08:46 PM
In reply to: Rawnoc who wrote msg# 201947 Post # of 207003

DOW is about 8500, 1500 away from 10,000. It has made no headway so far half-way thru the year. See chart below. Sideways. There is no uptrend. It is premature, even ignorant, to think the DOW is suddenly in an uptrend because it goes up 100 one day. Lately it has been sideways, up one day and down the next. Typically the markets are slow in the summer, so I would not expect a move until the fall. I think we will trend down from now until October, with a low in the mid to upper 7000's, then a rally in November and December to close the year on an uptrend, maybe even approaching 9000. I reiterate that I see 10,000 in 2010 and a bull market underway that will last for a few years, until the boomers start retiring in earnest, start drawing down savings, start moving investments from growth stocks to income stocks, bonds and CDs. For the long term, now is actually a great time to buy, as long as you understand the downside risk below 8000. I have started accumulating undervalued stocks and will be a big buyer in September at the market low, or sooner if the market falls to 8000 or lower.