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Re: plexxus post# 297622

Saturday, 09/18/2004 3:16:12 PM

Saturday, September 18, 2004 3:16:12 PM

Post# of 704041
The problem is that we have a very congested area in the 1933/1965 on the Naz, and even if we take 1933, it might be just a set up fr a sharp retrench. Note the tough seasonality (end of September beginning of October) we are in, amplified by still uncertainties throth in crude prices, Iraq and the elections.

I would expect more warnings to come down the pike and with insider selling reaching some kind of a top here, I think my "careful" stance might be the "safe" play for now. Note also that the NAHL has made a mild double top here, which might signal short term reversal. On the other hand, EPC is behaving quite well, but overall volume is quite tepid. The chart itself could easily turn into a fight to retake the trading range of the 7/14-7/21 period (1875 to 1933 with higher average volume than the current volume). If 1892 is taken out, even intraday, the resolution of that fight might be continuation and taking out 1875, leading to at least a test of 1820 from 8/31, maybe even worse.

AZH

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