Foreign Correspondence

[otraque]

Oil Riches Confound Reform
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/16/opinion/16thu4.html
Published: September 16, 2004
In the past year, as the reality of homegrown terrorism blasted its way into the collective psyche of the Saudi royal family, the monarchy edged, at last, in the direction of domestic reform. The agenda consisted mostly of talk - an official dialogue between the rulers and the intellectuals on once-taboo topics like human rights and the status of women. But in a place as severely repressed as Saudi Arabia, discussion in itself is an achievement.

The recent rise in oil prices, however, has left the Saudi regime awash in windfall profits, allowing it to clamp down on debate and freeing it from any immediate necessity to engage its subjects in a politically meaningful way. That is, of course, a blow for the Saudi masses. But it also spells trouble for everyone else. As reforms are delayed, terrorists gain an opening to exploit ordinary Saudis' deep dissatisfaction with the royal family's authoritarian rule. The failure of internal reform thus becomes a threat to the outside world.

The clampdown has recently taken on particularly ominous overtones. Three reformers who were arrested in March for signing petitions are still in jail. The petitions urged the rulers to establish a constitutional monarchy, allow independent monitoring of human rights and set a timetable for reforms. (A number of other detained petitioners were released when they promised to stop advocating publicly for reform.) Last week, the first-ever nationwide elections for local offices, originally called for September and October, were postponed until next February at the earliest. There is still no decision on whether women will be allowed to vote.

The Saudi leaders may prefer to think that they can retain absolute power as long as the oil flows. But the United States must not indulge their fantasy. Reform, not the price of oil, must be the top priority. If the Saudi regime won't find a way to engage the energy of its young, idle, repressed and increasingly poor population, the jihadists will.
(edit-from NYT editorial page)