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Saturday, August 15, 2009 5:15:26 PM
Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (8/15/09)
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_15_09.htm
Right now we have two scenario's to watch for as we approach the end of Summer and move into the Fall. The first scenario is that the entire move up from the March low is just Wave A of a larger ABC corrective rally as the S&P 500 has encountered resistance at the 38.2% Retrace near 1014 calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low. If that is the case then look for Wave B to develop in the Fall with support coming above the 869 level. Once Wave B ends then we would see one more significant move higher for Wave C with resistance possibly coming in around 1120 which is the 50% Retrace and along the longer term downward sloping trend line (black line).
Meanwhile the second scenario is that Wave C is in play as Waves A and B have already occurred. Since Wave B was a rather shallow pullback then Wave C would probably end up being shorter in length than Wave A with a possibly target price in the 1040 to 1050 area. If this is the case then the July low of 869 will be a key level to watch in the longer term.
At this point nobody really knows which one of these scenario's may eventually play out in the longer term however I would watch the US Dollar in the coming weeks. As we have seen in the past the USD and the S&P 500 have been trending in opposite directions. When the USD has been weak (points A to B) the S&P 500 has rallied (points C to D) and when the USD has been strong (points B to A) the S&P 500 has sold off (points D to C). Thus if this trend continues a weakening US Dollar would likely help the stock market rise in the future while a strengthening US Dollar would probably hurt the stock market .
In 2008 our ETF Strategies worked the best with which had a return of +33% versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5% for the year.
Meanwhile our 401K Strategy finished up +17.3% for the year.
Signup for a "Free 4 Week Trial Membership" or save up to 50% on a Premium Membership and you will have access to these Investment Products which include the following:
1. "ETF Daily Buy and Short Signals" which can be used to trade the DIA's, QQQQ's, SPY's and OIH's. Our ETF Strategy returned 33% in 2008.
2. "401K/Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Timing Service" which can be used to help improve your return in your 401k/TSP Account which was up +17.3% in 2008.
3. The "End of Month Strategy" finished up +36.3% in 2008. This Strategy focuses on the typical End of Month markup by the Institutional Money.
4. "Stocks to Buy List" which can be used with either our Short Term Strategy or Long Term Strategy. In 2008 our Long Term Strategy finished even for the year versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5%.
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_15_09.htm
Right now we have two scenario's to watch for as we approach the end of Summer and move into the Fall. The first scenario is that the entire move up from the March low is just Wave A of a larger ABC corrective rally as the S&P 500 has encountered resistance at the 38.2% Retrace near 1014 calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low. If that is the case then look for Wave B to develop in the Fall with support coming above the 869 level. Once Wave B ends then we would see one more significant move higher for Wave C with resistance possibly coming in around 1120 which is the 50% Retrace and along the longer term downward sloping trend line (black line).
Meanwhile the second scenario is that Wave C is in play as Waves A and B have already occurred. Since Wave B was a rather shallow pullback then Wave C would probably end up being shorter in length than Wave A with a possibly target price in the 1040 to 1050 area. If this is the case then the July low of 869 will be a key level to watch in the longer term.
At this point nobody really knows which one of these scenario's may eventually play out in the longer term however I would watch the US Dollar in the coming weeks. As we have seen in the past the USD and the S&P 500 have been trending in opposite directions. When the USD has been weak (points A to B) the S&P 500 has rallied (points C to D) and when the USD has been strong (points B to A) the S&P 500 has sold off (points D to C). Thus if this trend continues a weakening US Dollar would likely help the stock market rise in the future while a strengthening US Dollar would probably hurt the stock market .
In 2008 our ETF Strategies worked the best with which had a return of +33% versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5% for the year.
Meanwhile our 401K Strategy finished up +17.3% for the year.
Signup for a "Free 4 Week Trial Membership" or save up to 50% on a Premium Membership and you will have access to these Investment Products which include the following:
1. "ETF Daily Buy and Short Signals" which can be used to trade the DIA's, QQQQ's, SPY's and OIH's. Our ETF Strategy returned 33% in 2008.
2. "401K/Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Timing Service" which can be used to help improve your return in your 401k/TSP Account which was up +17.3% in 2008.
3. The "End of Month Strategy" finished up +36.3% in 2008. This Strategy focuses on the typical End of Month markup by the Institutional Money.
4. "Stocks to Buy List" which can be used with either our Short Term Strategy or Long Term Strategy. In 2008 our Long Term Strategy finished even for the year versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5%.
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