The IEA explains its bullish forecast— In 2010, by contrast, the picture could be dramatically different. As a starting point, this report uses IMF economic assumptions (World Economic Outlook, April 2009), which posit that global economic growth will reach +1.8% in 2010, compared with ‐1.4% in 2009 – that is, a swing of over three percentage points. Under this scenario, oil demand is expected to rebound by +1.7% or +1.4 mb/d year‐on‐year to 85.2 mb/d – but still way below 2008 levels. Unsurprisingly, this strong rebound is poised to be led by non‐OECD countries, where demand should expand by +3.5% or +1.3 mb/d, close to levels seen in previous years and following zero growth in 2009. China, the Middle East and to a lesser extent Latin America will play a prominent role. The OECD, meanwhile, should also post a modest recovery (+0.2% or +100 kb/d) as most of its economies gradually emerge from their deepest slump in over half a century, with North America being arguably the engine of growth.
Almost all the new demand comes from emerging markets (China, the Middle East and South America). The IEA bases its conclusion on the International Monetary Fund’s April, 2009 World Economic Outlook, but the IMF has already upped its forecast since the IEA published its July report.