Abet Chichi2

[chichi2]

$SPX FORECAST reiterated/expanded (for All)

BUT 42,
I still think we will have a pull back soon(sept./oct.) as we are entering a seasonally negative time for the market.

42, 2 thoughts on overbot. one is overbot and we go down or sideways to release it, other thought is that we can stay overbot and this is a positive thingy as there are more higher highs than lower lows. can stay overbot for long time or could just go sideways. i still think we pull back but too much money coming into the market to pull back very far.


CHI; a question regarding 'anon's' seasonal post that i'm responding to. Could it be that this whole 1,2,3,-waves so far is only part of 'large' 1 up ?? And that in the sept/oct could be wave 4 from say spx 1100-1200 down to 'whatever' with a wave-5 to finish 'upleg-1' around yearend ?? In bull or bear mkts are usually 3 large uplegs or downlegs if bear. Waves 1,3, and 5. I'm still of the assumption that this is a 2003-2007 thingy. Am i offbase about the whole cyclical bull thing ??? NOT expecting an immed reply 'cause i know you get busy during mkt hours. TIA. Bob.

cnbc speakers seem to favor a correction coming. but on small side possible to $SPX 970-975 area.

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Chi2, or Chichi2 as i prefer to be known, as my wife was known as Chichi#1, believes that we are in Large Wave 3 which should peak about 1200 to 1250 area.

After that i expect Large Wave 4, which will vibrate with its Top in general area of Top of Large Wave 3. Large Wave 4 will have at least 3 sub-waves, and possibly 5 sub-waves.

Trading-wise i recommend treating Wave 3 Trading different from Wave 4 Trading.

Wave 3's it is risk-wise profitable to Hold core holdings and even some or most trades; however, in Wave 3's, personally i tend to trade stocks as i play the saw-tooth phenom, as even if i make a poor short buy, i can sell it, and i can play some more as i know that the Wave 3 will continue up. Note if you ever get frightened in a Wave 3, just sell out, sleep easy. You can always buy back in, and take advantage of the continuing up move of the Wave 3.

Wave 4's are Treacherous. Not to be played by Beginners nor by most Intermediate Traders. Sell out at the end of Wave 3, go on Stock market Vacation. Watch, do not trade.

Risk-wise Wave 4's all trades should be considered as Day Trades or Over-Night Trades. Otherwise i suggest you stay out.

Only come back, IF THERE IS AN ALL CLEAR, a Wave 5 is in progress.

Next i show charts, my 07/18 $SPX forecast it is still correct for where is Large Wave 3 Top pattern expected to be.

FIRST CHART SHOWS= Daily $SPX and the Forecast



SECOND CHART SHOWS= Weekly $SPX, note Resistance Lines at 1000-1050 area and next in 1200-1250 area



Now i will cover timing, which is easier to guess when we get closer to numbers. Above i feel pretty good about, below is move of a guesstimate to fit my Point prediction.

It seems any of those proposed ideas may be correct. Pick your poison is maybe what Cleopatra would do.

My guess is $SPX will move into 1150-1250 into Sept 2009, which would end Large Wave 3. Then would start Large Wave 4.
Which would take us into area of end of year, with its sub-waves Tops at 1150-1250 or Wave 5 beginning in that area for end of year reasons.

Click on Replied to Msg for more Charts
$SPX weekly chart
General Indices 60 min (4) chart.
Major Sector daily (9) charts
General Indices daily (5) charts
Several Bullish Percent charts.