IMO, softie will keeps it monopoloy on the desktop for a while, just like IBM still has a monopoloy on the mainframe, it's just not a growth market anymore...but gradually it's competitive position will erode....in fact it is already happening....
What many investors seem to forget is that MSFT still enjoys a P/s of 8 and that is unsustaianble...in other words the expecations embedded in its stock price will be hard to meet....IMO