Short term I'm not the one to listen to. I work in the tech industry and what I see happening makes me very bullish long term. We are at the initial stages of major trends, in software and telco, that gradually will get more momentum.
The problem is that those trends are threatening the large tech companies...they have a lot to lose if those trends start to accelerate. It's my conviction they will accelerate, it's just hard to say when.
So, in the meantime we have two opposite forces at work: -pressure on the incumbents' business models -powerful trends at initial stages