50/50 chance it goes back to $4.00 real fast though. What makes it a 50/50 chance? Thought you had some theory for making that statement.
But if all you meant was it's a gamble. I agree, it's a gamble, a big gamble. The risk of Eritrea has just increased, that will not change even if the situation is resolved quickly. That said it will not go back to $4, but to some other price lower. And yes it will also take another turn down as speculators or hanger ons do not realize any bounce from better news.
Too bad for Eritrea, the country could use a mine, if it was done right.