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Re: xp2k2k3 post# 331

Monday, 07/20/2009 4:42:34 PM

Monday, July 20, 2009 4:42:34 PM

Post# of 1434
Triptans, the most commonly prescribed class of drugs for the treatment of migraine, are a $3.3 billion market in the U.S

http://www.zogenix.com/index.php/news/sumavel-dosepro-sumatriptan-injection-approved-by-fda-for-acute-migraine-and-cluster-headache/

Aradigm sold off its needle-free injection platform, known as Intraject, and its lead product, Intraject Sumitriptan, which targets quick relief of migraine. Intraject was sold to Zogenix for $4 million, and Aradigm will receive a small (between 3% and 5%) royalty from revenues.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/31031-aradigm-revisited-ceo-adds-input-to-analysis

Sumavel DosePro has the potential to be used as a replacement for needle injectable.I would assume DosePro easily captures 30% or more market cap.

3.3 billion 30% = 990,000,000 mil
990mil 3%= 29.7 mil/100.21mil shares= 0.296eps * 12 avgPE = 3.55 pps
990mil 5%= 49.5 mil/100.21mil shares= 0.494eps * 12 avgPE = 5.92 pps


This royalty payments is base on sales of products in U.S. Other countries, including the European Union, and around the world might be well over hundred million per year. No cost associated to this revenue stream. Will be lower when taking into consideration JMHO.


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