Tornado Alley (PROG)

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F6 .. speaking of wind .. lol .. then
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=21038601

NOW .. Asia and Pacific face El Nino
Updated July 13, 2009 11:32:27

Climate experts say an El Nino weather pattern is developing, threatening more drought and forest fires in Indonesia and Australia.

An El Nino pattern takes place every two to seven years, and is seen by scientists as part of a natural climate cycle. It occurs when waters in the east Pacific Ocean heat up, resulting in moist air moving to the east and leading to drier conditions in the western Pacific.

Presenter: Sen Lam
Speakers: Stewart Franks, Associate Professor in Environmental Engineering, University of Newcastle

* Listen: .. * Windows Media
http://www.abc.net.au/ra/connectasia/stories/m1764092.asx

FRANKS: The El Nino is a process that basically builds up over time and where we are at at the moment, what we're seeing are the signs of developing El Nino conditions. I know the Australian Bureau of Meterology cast that about 60 percent chance that we will go through to a full mature El Nino. That probably is a reasonably good estimate. That's about four times more likely than the long term average.

LAM: So generally though, it is not very good news for Australia, because parts of southern Australia have had a long running drought?

FRANKS: Yes, that's right. Since about 2002, we've actually had a string of El Ninos that did bring drought across eastern Australia. We've since had a couple of La Nina years which have restored the water and in the soils and the reservoirs to some degrees in the northern part of eastern Australia, but the southwest is very dry. So any El Nino or even a chance of an El Nino is obviously very bad news for those places that are already in deficit.

LAM: How serious is this for Australia?

FRANKS: To be honest, we did have those, the last two years have been La Ninas. We were looking at, for instance, Sydney's metropolitan water supply was down to quite critical levels, many major towns, such as Brisbane in Queensland were at very critical levels. We did get a lot of useful rainfall in the last two years, so this El Nino will not threaten major water supplies of the major cities, but of course, when you have a string of very bad drought years as we've had since 2002, the La Nina brought rainfall, but also many floods in northern Australia, then clearly agriculture has been suffering and so if we do have another drought, it's just misery on top of misery I am afraid.

LAM: Yes, well, in broader regional terms, do you think it might have an adverse impact on agriculture in Asia?

FRANKS: Well, undoubtedly if we do get a full mature El Nino, and if it is reasonably strong, then as you said, in your introduction, the destruction across Indonesia you get a lot of drought across Indonesia and that would persist through to about February or March. And eastern Australia obviously, but also in the Pacific Islands. It's actually a bit of a mixed picture in the Pacific Islands, but the equatorial islands actually get much wetter conditions, but I guess other parts of Polynesia also have the drought. So yes, it is a regionally impacting phenomenon and of course, a lack of something as fundamental as water is always bad.

LAM: But of course just as it caused droughts in Australia, I understand that El Nino can also cause quite destructive rainfall in parts of Asia?

FRANKS: Yes, that's right. Again it really depends where you are, it really depends on location. What El Nino does is tends to not so much change weather patterns as such, but just shift them around a bit. So depending on where you are, you might actually have what would appear quite unusual weather and that is because it has been shifted, because there's this large scale motion, this process in the Pacific Ocean.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/connectasia/stories/200907/s2624079.htm