Jobs number tomorrow >> about 180 to 200K, while the "consensus" is 125 K <<
According to Briefing consensus is 150K which is laughable considering the "economic recovery" we're in. Agree we could get 200K since we need 150K according to most statistics just to stay even with population growth. If we get 200K the market may rally strong, but it really shouldn't get that excited imho unless we get 250K plus and the prior months get revised up. Agree with Roach who cites numerous example of how this recovery in jobs is VERY LACKLUSTER w/respect to past recoveries. We're several MILLION jobs down from past recoveries. Ok, so maybe we beat the number tomorrow by 50 or even 100K. Big deal. Economy still heading for the crapper in 2005 and beyond.
Markets only being held up through massive currency intervention currently. Were it not for Japan, China and now probably the EU we'd be seeing new lows on the Dollar index and a mass exodus out of our markets ala '87. May still happen this fall, but I'm guessing the CB's will control the rate of decent if we start to head down again and they can't even generate "fake" jobs.
Given how low the bar has been set for tomorrow the markets should be able to rally (or at least lessen the INTC news) when we "beat" the number, but if not could get interesting for gold and those who are short. Don't take this as a rant towards yourself, but rather the system that's way too focused on the "beat the number" game.
FWIW, not short this market, but have some gold and some cash.
