Biotech Values

[iwfal]

ARYx Tecafarin failure - I bow to Dew on this (sincerely - albeit with some humor).

(My last public predict was 60% chance of success for the trial - and although further research indicated that the historical controls in the earlier trials were likely a bigger weakness than I expected when I gave my predict, I still would have expected something better than a flat equivalence. Hence the bow to Dew.)

PS I think the story on the other two late stage products is more compelling. E.g. they have already shown that one of the two is completely missing the QT enlongation effect that killed the parent drug.

PPS Why, oh why, do people run unrandomized ph ii's?