Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

MND confirms China pulling troops from drill

2004-08-31 / Taiwan News, Staff Reporter / By Taijing Wu
The Ministry of Defense confirmed yesterday that China's military had withdrawn most of its troops from Dongshan Island where it was to hold an annual war game, but would not say if the action indicated Beijing was calling off the maneuvers that simulate invasions of Taiwan.

"Taiwan's Armed Forces continuously and closely observe the movements of the People's Liberation Army. They have recently recalled most of their 3,000 troops, and are still pulling the last troops back," said military spokesman Major General Huang Suey-sheng.

However, the Ministry of National Defense declined to comment further on the issue, saying the purpose of the operation had yet to be made clear.

In an article published yesterday, however, the China Times reported that China pulled out most of its troops before Typhoon Aere approached the country's southern coast last Tuesday, and they had not been redeployed since, leading analysts to conclude the military maneuvers had been called off.

The report speculated the China called off the exercise because the propaganda campaign mounted prior to the drill had achieved the goal of rattling Taiwan.

Local analysts, however, disagreed over the report's claims.

One military expert agreed the drills had been canceled, but said worsening weather was the main culprit.

"I think this could be because of the typhoon that just hit China's southeastern coast. Political issues don't figure much into this," said Shu Hsiao-huang, senior editor of the monthly magazine, Defense International.

Another analyst specializing in the PLA's organization and Chinese government's secret services, contended that the PLA's moves needed to be seen within an international context.

"This is absolutely not because of the typhoon, and the exercises have not been canceled," said Arthur Chi. "Let's not forget, the PLA troops are only being recalled. That might be one of the things they are practicing."

Chi argued that the PLA was not likely to cancel military exercises because of political and international factors.

"The PLA knows that the intensive exercises initiated by the U.S. this summer were not aimed at them, but rather aimed at the prevention of terrorism and stabilizing the military balance in the Asia-Pacific region," Chi said.

The analyst suggested that the live-fire portion of the maneuvers may have been halted, but that other less-visible exercises were still under way.

Because the theme of the People's Liberation Army's drills this year was "the reform of military operations under computerization," Chi said, China's military did not need to intimidate either the United States or Taiwan with a large amount of live fire and could afford to pull back its troops.

"There are four essential factors in a battle, which are surveillance and reconnaissance, command and control, attacking and finally logistics. Right now, the People's Liberation Army is trying to link up these four factors," Chi said.

"Data link is what is the most difficult right now," the analyst contended, which is why the PLA is concentrating its exercises on that rather than live fire drills.

"China might also want to prevent Taiwan and the U.S. from intercepting their weapons' parameters during live-fire exercises," Chi speculated.

One military analyst thought the move reflected a change in the distribution of power within the PLA's organization, which might even signal a certain "detente" in cross-strait relations.

Cheng Chi-wen, editor in chief of Defense International said relations between China and the United States may have improved recently as a number of high-ranking politicians from the two countries have visited each other in recent months.


http://www.etaiwannews.com/Taiwan/2004/08/31/1093920354.htm