Short Term Trading Member Forum

[PriceTeam]

More bullish potential here than most dare to guess. The $NDX had gotten ahead of itself and a back-test of the 50-dma was a virtual requirement. So waiting for the $NDX and the dramatic drop on Monday spooked the rest of the market. When everyone figures out what happened and what is happening now, the rally monkey will be back.

As it turns out, the $NDX still couldn't make it all the way to the 50-dma. This is bullish. Also notice the 200-dma scooping gracefully below price. Everything I have presented recently remains on track--although we did see a bigger drop than expected in many indices. This is completely understandable and if you look at a longer-term chart, you will see the bullish potential remains intact.

I'll be looking for a new high for the 20-week cycle--especially on the NDX. Beware the bullish 50-200-dma cross on the SPX--today--and the Dunnigan thrust clearly marking the end of the 5-week cycle low. June 23 appears to mark the low. Based on this, I'll put out a tentative 20-week low of July 28 (+/- 3 trading days). This would give the market all the way into the week of July 13 to put in a new high.

4th of July, here we come. "Oh say can you see by the dawn's early light..."

Ted



(charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)