Gold is actually up 16.3% p.a. on average for the last eight years.. The yellow metal is moving from its recent to role as a fear barometer back into its traditional pastime of trending in opposition to the US$. We expect that to continue, and we watch the strengthening Indian Rupee as an important harbinger of gold’s price potential. India has long been the most important physical market for gold and silver. It was the destocking of gold out of India that held some of its price in check during the first quarter despite the increased investment buying of the metal in other markets. There has seen support at the Rupees 1400/gram level in India, which has been an upward shifting target level in Dollars of late that currently equates to about US$930 per ounce. Just how an improved mood within India will impact that economy’s gold habits is an open question. Crisis selling in India does not mean buying will resume now because Indians are feeling better about things. It may however mean they will again be gold holders rather than sellers. That would smooth the way to a higher gold price as the dollar weakens.
There has recently been a greater shift towards asset rich juniors and some target rich gold explorers that are both funded and active. When the gold price is rising, it is normal to see longer term gold players shift some gains on more senior stocks in the sector to these riskier gold equities. If the weakening US$ pushes gold back towards its recently established highs some of these companies will become take-over candidates, and others will be see gains in expectation of further take-over. The pieces have already been put in place for this to happen.
The resource heavy Toronto Stock Exchange wrote almost as much business as the New York Stock Exchange did in the first quarter of this year (when the C$ was weaker than it is now). The first and largest chunk of that went to gold players, and the expectation now is that some of those funds are about to be used for shopping. We are just now starting to see expectations for that cash tickling the price of low hanging metal fruit.
What about storing metals with the seller or buying ETFs. No! No! No! That’s paper metal, and there is no way to ensure they are actually putting aside the metal and its easy for gov. to confiscate it all?
The price of gold can be volatile in the short term, gold has always maintained its value over the long term. Through the years, it has served as a hedge against inflation and the erosion of major currencies, and thus is an investment well worth considering....