Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Caveat Emptor re GNVC

There appear to be many clueless longs chasing GNVC who are apt to dump their shares when they figure out what they are doing.

For instance, in #msg-38585974 on this board, you see a poster who did not realize p<0.05 is not the statistical threshold for declaring a clinical trial a success at an interim analysis. I would have thought anyone buying the shares of a company like GNVC would have at least a rudimentary understanding of how clinical trials are conducted, but such is not the case, evidently.

This recent exchange from the GNVC board on iHub is revealing:

[From #msg-38596846 by Dew in reply to Zorro]: >So when's this stock going to blast off?<

Probably not until after the second interim analysis, which is a long way off.

There’s no reason I know of to expect that the p-value at the second interim will meet the tiny alpha that’s customarily allocated to interim looks in cancer trials, even if one assumes that the HR will improve over time. Hence, the trial will likely proceed to a final analysis after the second interim, and investors will have plenty of time to get in after the second interim if the HR is disclosed and is impressive.

The above post generated the following reply:

[From #msg-38598466 by rkor]: huge money is flooding the biotechs and riding and creating momentum waves with no concern for the specificities of the fundamentals. i greatly appreciate your insight, but am also just following the money. the volume shows it has come here now.

To reiterate… caveat emptor!