Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Bob Zumbrunnen]

I've got a paper-trade position on QQQ options. I think it's called a "straddle"? I've got it written down at the office, but if I remember right, it's 100 Aug32 puts and 200 Aug33 calls, entered Friday. Was way down on the combined position today.

Basically, a paper bet that the coin won't even come close to landing on its edge.

I'm pretty busy these days with non-market activities (SI Rewrite is solidly on the home stretch), but am putting a little bit of my spare time into learning and analyzing max pain theory. I want to see if it can be applied semi-reliably and programmatically to a large basket of stocks that have relatively small institutional involvement, since hedge positions can seriously skew things.

Basically, I want to see if max pain is reliable when it's assumed the only players are smart market-makers with lots of buying/selling power and relatively unsophisticated retail investors with much less market clout.