Re: <I don't think we are yet in the continuation of the secular bear, but in few moths, we should put out a top which should mark the end of the cyclical bull from July/October 2002. >
You are of course welcome to your opinion but I think predicting the end of the cyclical bull after this gargantuan oversold market is sticking your neck out.
We have suffered a sharp correction within the confines of a larger and longer bull run. That is consistent with corrections within a bull. The market is by my calculations more oversold than it was in 2002.
September is near and I would expect the selling to end then as it is one of the favored bottoming months.
I doubt your economic doom prognostication comes to fruition.