Strategy Desk Users' Group

[Syko]

Reply to Question of The Week - Fundamental Analysis

I currently have 110 stocks that I have done the full fundamental research on which are in my active watch list about 5 stocks fall off and 5 get added each week. Of those in the list, for about 10, I additionally listen to conference calls. read all the news and follow very closely. I keep my total number of active of positions relatively small...10 to 15...with usually anywhere from 100 to 1000 shares of each depending on the stock. I read all the sites like The Street and the others. I also cruise the forums looking for confirmation of my ideas. I NEVER listen to the "analysts" that work for the big firms...in my experience they're rarely right, late to the party or selfishly motivated.

When it comes time to trade, I very rarely am in and and out in a day. Usually 3 days minimum...but usually no longer than a couple of weeks. I tend to sell and re-buy some of the same stocks repeatedly rather than buy and hold (some could argue that this is inefficient, but I'd rather see real money in my pocket than see unrealized gains disappear into the ether...this is also why I'm a firm believer in stops). A few stocks, like GS and AAPL I've held on to and harvest profits periodically. For all positions, I review the charts several times a day. Every night I run several screens and hunt for targets. For watch list stocks, I review the fundamentals about twice a month just to keep them all straight. And, some stocks I let the computer trade, like Sprint, for which using a simple Stochastic trigger has made me some money. What I have learned is that for confirming candidates for the watch list, fundamental research pays off...but it doesn't really do much to help you decide when to enter or exit a position. For that, as far as I'm concerned, technical analysis can't be beat.

BTW, I pulled the trigger on ORCL today...I know Tony already executed based on the DeMark setup...but I waited for confirmation (which to me means also waiting for the MACD, Sto and 10 DMA to all be positive in addition to a green light from the DeMark).