Biotech Values

[microcapfun]

ISRG
>>What was the quarter-over-quarter growth in procedures? I couldn’t find the 4Q08 procedure count in the prior threads on this board. T.i.a.<<

I'm not sure that number was disclosed. But here are a few others. 4Q08 procedures grew 61% yoy and 15% sequentially. During the full year 2008, procedures grew by 60% over 2007 - to approximately 136,000. Procedure growth was ~71% in 2007 (over 2006).

There are some modest seasonal effects in procedure numbers, so I still think yoy provides more information than sequential.

Before the Q1 earnings release and cc I was only expecting about 40% year over year procedure growth during 2009. That's why it was so bizarre to read posts here talking about how badly Intuitive is doing after they reported 60% procedure growth in Q1. In the number that counts the most - adoption rate of the technology - they had an absolutely blowout 2008 and 1Q09, and there are no signs of that hitting a wall anytime soon.

What is happening right now is that da Vinci prostatectomies are beginning to saturate, whereas hysterectomies and other GYN procedures (a much larger market) are still in the bottom part of the S curve. This year I'm estimating ~84K da Vinci prostectomies, ~65K hysterectomies and ~55K other procedures - for a total of ~50% yoy growth (adjusted after Q1).

There are other procedures just beginning to take off, but even ignoring them there is no way the adoption rate is going to slow before hysterectomies begin to saturate - and that won't be this year or next.

There are ~650,000 hysterectomies carried out each year in the U.S. alone.

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