Intel Corp (INTC)

[Sarmad]

>> But before the market can go higher and Intel break the $16 barrier, there has to be confirmation by some leading economic indicators. So far that is lacking, and the rally is stuck in a waiting mode.
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My view is more optimistic.

The tech "rally" is not stalled. Just INTC and companies in similar position in the component supply chain. Look at NASDAQ chart. A new high nearly every other day since mid-March.

Then look at CSCO, Dell, MSFT, IBM, HPQ, ORCL. Same with all these technology leaders. A new high nearly every day since mid-march.

However, chip makers such as Intel, TXN, ADI, ALTR, XLNX, along with the biggest chip equip maker, AMAT are all stalled.They quit making new highs since 4 weeks ago.

I think the reason is clear. companies that are closer to the consumer are depleting their inventory, and delaying buying from chip makers. So even though sales to consumers are rising, sales of component suppliers are not. That view was expressed by Intel CEO (with regard to Atom, especially). Q1 GDP data released today confirms that inventories are being depleted at an unsustainable rate.

I think the last hurdle for INTC clearing 16 is the employment data tomorrow. By 9:31 eastern INTC will either sink or swim. Along with the other chip makers. That's why I bought in to my full position in INTC today.

By the way, I am not looking for INTC to get up higher than 18 this quarter. But in Q3 or Q4 $20/sh is a possibility. Basically I think INTC's range should rise a dollar per quarter.