I feel we are in a rapid cycling of bubble bust bubble for the time being. The death cross of 2000 occurred in a major bubble, the golden cross occurred coming off of a major bust; but i believe we are still in a secular bear unstable market. Let's look at 1998, we could have switched to short on the 13 crossdown on 50, and on seeing the subsequent 50 cross on 200 increase short and then bail at ultra ultra oversold conditions that did occur, and then the rapid recovering from the very deep Death Cross to a Golden Cross , was a signal of so much market recovery vigor to then get quite bullish. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[f,a]daclyyay[d19980504,19990804][pc13!c50!c200][...
It is all about being elastic:) me thinks---i, like all others, do NOT have the Holy Grail for trading---you just carve out of all the alternatives what you feel works best for you, and i say for you as one's aptitudes may fit better one method than another. Soros himself decided at a young age his best aptitude was in recognizing tops and bottoms, so that is where he put much of his mental energy.
He played his video game night and day. The MAZE of Death. But that is the game we all are in, the trick, don't believe it.Get above it all and imagine nothing is what it seems.Kill the machine.otraque