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Saturday, April 18, 2009 8:04:26 PM
Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (4/18/09)
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_April_18_09.htm
Overall the market has rallied for 6 weeks in a row but is starting to become rather overextended. As far as the Dow it has been holding support the past 5 weeks either at its 10 Day EMA (purple line) or at its 20 Day EMA (green line) while remaining in an up trend. If the Dow undergoes another pullback look for support at its 20 Day EMA near 7850.
The Nasdaq has been basically holding support at its 10 Day EMA (purple line) since the early March low and is due for another pullback. The 10 Day EMA is now around 1630 while the 20 Day EMA (green line) is around 1585 so those are two support levels to watch for next week if the Nasdaq does go through a pullback.
As far as the S&P 500 just like the Dow it has been holding support either at its 10 Day EMA or 20 Day EMA since mid March and is becoming somewhat overextended in the near term. If a pullback does develop next week I would look for support to come in at or above its 20 Day EMA which is now nearing the 830 level.
Finally as far as the longer term once again all of the major averages have completed an Elliott Wave 5 Wave pattern and appear to be going through an the "A" part of an ABC type corrective rally. In theory once the "A" Wave ends this should be followed by a "B" Wave pullback that may retrace up to 50% of the "A" Wave up. If this is what is occurring the Dow should eventually go through a "B" Wave pullback possibly to around 7400 before eventually rallying up to the 9000 to 9400 range at some point in the future for Wave "C". The 9000 level is at the 40 Week EMA while the 9400 area is a 38.2% Retrace from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.
As for the Nasdaq if it eventually goes through a Wave "B" pullback a 50% Retrace would be around 1470 while the final "C" Wave would potentially rally up to the 1880 level which is the 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.
Finally for the S&P 500 a 50% Retrace for Wave "B" would take it potentially back to around 770 while the Wave "C" could potentially rally up to the 960 to 1014 range. The 960 level is near the 40 Week EMA while the 1014 area is the 38.2% Retrace calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.
In 2008 our ETF Strategies worked the best with which had a return of +33% versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5% for the year.
Meanwhile our 401K Strategy finished up +17.3% for the year.
Signup for a "Free 4 Week Trial Membership" or save up to 50% on a Premium Membership and you will have access to these Investment Products which include the following:
1. "ETF Daily Buy and Short Signals" which can be used to trade the DIA's, QQQQ's, SPY's and OIH's. Our ETF Strategy returned 33% in 2008.
2. "401K/Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Timing Service" which can be used to help improve your return in your 401k/TSP Account which was up +17.3% in 2008.
3. The "End of Month Strategy" finished up +36.3% in 2008. This Strategy focuses on the typical End of Month markup by the Institutional Money.
4. "Stocks to Buy List" which can be used with either our Short Term Strategy or Long Term Strategy. In 2007 our Long Term Strategy finished even for the year versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5%.
Our Spring Membership Special for new Members is shown below
which are 50% Off our normal Monthly Rate of $39.95
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_April_18_09.htm
Overall the market has rallied for 6 weeks in a row but is starting to become rather overextended. As far as the Dow it has been holding support the past 5 weeks either at its 10 Day EMA (purple line) or at its 20 Day EMA (green line) while remaining in an up trend. If the Dow undergoes another pullback look for support at its 20 Day EMA near 7850.
The Nasdaq has been basically holding support at its 10 Day EMA (purple line) since the early March low and is due for another pullback. The 10 Day EMA is now around 1630 while the 20 Day EMA (green line) is around 1585 so those are two support levels to watch for next week if the Nasdaq does go through a pullback.
As far as the S&P 500 just like the Dow it has been holding support either at its 10 Day EMA or 20 Day EMA since mid March and is becoming somewhat overextended in the near term. If a pullback does develop next week I would look for support to come in at or above its 20 Day EMA which is now nearing the 830 level.
Finally as far as the longer term once again all of the major averages have completed an Elliott Wave 5 Wave pattern and appear to be going through an the "A" part of an ABC type corrective rally. In theory once the "A" Wave ends this should be followed by a "B" Wave pullback that may retrace up to 50% of the "A" Wave up. If this is what is occurring the Dow should eventually go through a "B" Wave pullback possibly to around 7400 before eventually rallying up to the 9000 to 9400 range at some point in the future for Wave "C". The 9000 level is at the 40 Week EMA while the 9400 area is a 38.2% Retrace from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.
As for the Nasdaq if it eventually goes through a Wave "B" pullback a 50% Retrace would be around 1470 while the final "C" Wave would potentially rally up to the 1880 level which is the 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.
Finally for the S&P 500 a 50% Retrace for Wave "B" would take it potentially back to around 770 while the Wave "C" could potentially rally up to the 960 to 1014 range. The 960 level is near the 40 Week EMA while the 1014 area is the 38.2% Retrace calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.
In 2008 our ETF Strategies worked the best with which had a return of +33% versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5% for the year.
Meanwhile our 401K Strategy finished up +17.3% for the year.
Signup for a "Free 4 Week Trial Membership" or save up to 50% on a Premium Membership and you will have access to these Investment Products which include the following:
1. "ETF Daily Buy and Short Signals" which can be used to trade the DIA's, QQQQ's, SPY's and OIH's. Our ETF Strategy returned 33% in 2008.
2. "401K/Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Timing Service" which can be used to help improve your return in your 401k/TSP Account which was up +17.3% in 2008.
3. The "End of Month Strategy" finished up +36.3% in 2008. This Strategy focuses on the typical End of Month markup by the Institutional Money.
4. "Stocks to Buy List" which can be used with either our Short Term Strategy or Long Term Strategy. In 2007 our Long Term Strategy finished even for the year versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5%.
Our Spring Membership Special for new Members is shown below
which are 50% Off our normal Monthly Rate of $39.95
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