AI
Friday, April 10, 2009 6:17:06 PM
Here is my planned earnings expiry lotto trade for next week...
...but only if there is a small retracement first...
~AMR~ earnings on weds April 15th- est/eps:$1.52
{~AMRDH~ apr 4 calls} current= .60 x .65/expected buy price= .10-.30 (tues)
or
{~AMRDA~ apr 5 calls} current=.10 x .15/expected buy price @.05 (tues)
...chart notes...
The Case for a Retrace is so strong that I may even buy puts mon if we dont gap down...and then swing over to the calls tues...
DAILY:
1)We are near the top of a rising price channel...
2)We are near the 23.6% fibonacci resistance line...
3)We are at the 50EMA...
HOURLY:
1)Wave 3 of 3 is exactly the same distance as wave 1(the little fibs)
2)Thursday,we gapped up to an important 45 degree angle projected from wave 2,and have rode the 45 all day long,closing @ the top...
3)As you see,~AMR~'s latest rally from the bottom of wave 2 (wave 3) has already surpassed the distance of wave 1,which is why this is not simply an A,B,C correction...the trend looks very impulsive to me...all the odd waves are sub-dividing into their own 5-wave sequence...
Important note: The only potential technical danger that I see is if the retracement goes lower than 3.87 which is the high of wave 1...I wouldnt be concerned with a quick spike below that range...but heavy trading under that price suggests the pattern is broken and will most likely continue lower...
...somewhere within the green oval is my targeted load zone,preferably towards the bottom...
...but only if there is a small retracement first...
~AMR~ earnings on weds April 15th- est/eps:$1.52
{~AMRDH~ apr 4 calls} current= .60 x .65/expected buy price= .10-.30 (tues)
or
{~AMRDA~ apr 5 calls} current=.10 x .15/expected buy price @.05 (tues)
...chart notes...
The Case for a Retrace is so strong that I may even buy puts mon if we dont gap down...and then swing over to the calls tues...
DAILY:
1)We are near the top of a rising price channel...
2)We are near the 23.6% fibonacci resistance line...
3)We are at the 50EMA...
HOURLY:
1)Wave 3 of 3 is exactly the same distance as wave 1(the little fibs)
2)Thursday,we gapped up to an important 45 degree angle projected from wave 2,and have rode the 45 all day long,closing @ the top...
3)As you see,~AMR~'s latest rally from the bottom of wave 2 (wave 3) has already surpassed the distance of wave 1,which is why this is not simply an A,B,C correction...the trend looks very impulsive to me...all the odd waves are sub-dividing into their own 5-wave sequence...
Important note: The only potential technical danger that I see is if the retracement goes lower than 3.87 which is the high of wave 1...I wouldnt be concerned with a quick spike below that range...but heavy trading under that price suggests the pattern is broken and will most likely continue lower...
...somewhere within the green oval is my targeted load zone,preferably towards the bottom...
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