Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)

[MWM]

Good post from Yahoo...

I have decided. Glencore will attempt to buy Century. Est: $15
Posted by manaburrn2
4-Apr-09 11:18 pm

Glencore just had Valarie Hing do some housekeeping to verify EXACTLY how many shares they would have to purchase: http://investor.shareholder.com/cenx/sec...

73,557,000 outstanding - 28,038,839 Glencore common = 45,518,161 left to purchase

Also $959.52MM equity/73.557MM shares = $13.04 BV (it's not $19 anymore since the stock offering in Jan)

One caveat: On April 8, Glencore is allowed to raise their common stock stake to 49% (36,042,930). That will allow them an additional 8,004,091 shares. Since the current share price is LOWER than $13.04, it is in Glencore's best interest to purchase all 8MM shares on the open market, as long as the price stays below $15, before the buyout proposal. My guess is that they have already purchased these shares in the last month or two using an "unrelated" trading account, and the shares will be transferred in a few lumps on or within a few days following the 8th of April. This will save Glencore potentially $100MM (vs buying the 8MM @ $15) since the share price has been around $2 for the last month, and we have all seen the big trades go by.

One more calculation: 45,518,161 X $15 = $682,772,415. To put this into perspective, Century should have about $300,000,000 in cash, and spent $454,000,000 to bring Iceland up to 212,000MTPY capacity in 2006.

http://www.caltradereport.com/eWebPages/...

At $15 STILL a friggen deal.

Okay, I'm going to bed now.