Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ARYX: Physicians are not comfortable in a sizable segment of their patients (approximately 40%) in not being able to monitor the level of anticoagulation. These other agents cannot be monitored and they will have the same level of bleeds and thrombotic events as warfarin (not inferior). A large segment of patients will not be allowed to be on these non-monitorable therapies.

That’s a load of crap, IMO. The salient point is not that the new oral anticoagulants can’t be monitored, but rather that the new oral anticoagulants don’t need to be monitored in order to be safely administered.

I’ll go on record right now with the prediction that Tecarfarin will not sell more than $25M in any year. From a business standpoint, it’s probably the worst drug-development idea since NTMD’s BiDil.

I think the ARYX platform is very interesting.

Perhaps the platform per se is interesting but, if you’re long, you’d better hope some of the development programs are more promising than Tecarfarin.