Sector Investing

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I'm on record here stating that it would not surprise me if the market did not bottom until October 2009. That would give us a bear market of pretty much the same duration as the bear that led to the October 2002 bottom.

But I have learned a lot more about reading markets and sentiment since 2002 when I was uncertain if we had a real bottom then. I have very little concern about fundamentals, unemployment and consumer demand.

What I watch is volume, market breadth, sentiment and the like. I can tell you that I would love to see one more big sell off but I fear it will not be coming.

We are very likely going to have the first higher volume up week for all the major averages in a very long time. We have also been seeing great moves in the broader market underpinned by strength where it counts most, transportation stocks, financials and our favorite sector technology. If we don't sell off too much real soon here we are also going to have our first up month on higher volume.



The bottom line with that is that even if this bottom does not hold any better than the August 2002 bottom it should prove to be a good time to buy on weakness. The October 2002 low was lower. It was tested in March of 2003 but it held.

Then as now we have seen higher lows in many indicators like the BPNDX. The VIX recently was high but not as high as earlier in this bear market. The number of new lows was high but it has been declining even when the market hit new lows. I could go on and on but with the number of 90% upside days, broad market participation and volume looking better all the time I will just say I believe it is time to buy the dips again and hold for a while.

I could be wrong but I know my read on the market is not. Things are looking up.

JMHO, RtS