Monday, March 16, 2009 6:30:27 PM
"I'll be pessimistic with every pink sheet that claims this and that."
Me, too... I'm not much convinced by companies making claims about "this and that"... but, I'm also able to differentiate between a company that is "making claims about this and that" and a company that is doing something MORE than that... which seems a thing that is not in your repertoire ?
"The day they prove to me they are different from all the others is when I turn into a happy shareholder."
It seems there are wildly different abilities between and among investors, in being able to TELL when a company IS performing as it could and should... or something near that. Pretty neat trick, your claim... that you magically become a happy shareholder in those companies you don't own yet and are actively dissing, just until the point when they are able to prove something to you that makes a difference? LOL!!! Hey, wait... I thought you were the TA expert ? LOL!
"Do you fall for all pink sheet PRs and promises? That's a good way to invest lol."
I find it is not really very hard to parse the differences between companies and opportunities, so I divide the focus of my efforts in pinks/OTC into three categories:
First, those VERY few that ARE doing what they say they are, while growing a real business, developing a REAL opportunity, with an effort that CAN work, that is being led by a capable management team who have a high potential to deliver on the promise... while the value being developed remains attached to a share well enough to matter to shareholders. The list of those that I find and follow is fairly small... rarely will have more than four or five that survive the effort in DD to make the list. Picking the winners is rewarding enough to make the effort worthwhile.
Second, the large mass in the middle that are missing one or more elements in execution, management capability, the nature of the opportunity, market potential and promise... that make it much less likely that they can succeed, what ever the other elements are that have been aligned to posture their potential. These take the most effort in DD applied to sorting, given they are the largest and least interesting mass in the market, still with a wide range in things to look for that keep them there, instead of sorted into another category. Most fail... still not because they intend to fail, but for failures of their own making, or misreading or badly timing opportunities or markets. Often they'll only be missing that ONE thing that makes a difference... but, that one thing DOES make a difference... and it can take time to figure out what that thing is that creates risk greater than my threshold of tolerance in some issues. Proper DD takes time... and I do often follow companies for a long time before making a call and pulling the trigger... whether for shooting them or buying them.
Third, those far too numerous to care much enough about to follow them at all closely, that are basically clearly dead, hopeless, or "scam stocks". There are two subsets of those I do care about... those that appear to be so patently fraudulent as to make some effort applied or some comments posted about them worthwhile in the public interest, with little other potential interest in doing anything about it... and a second, similar subset... where the "scam" being intended or operated contains some seed of potential either for preventing the fraud from succeeding, or taking action in having it be unwound, in ways that enable creating unique benefit for shareholders. Obviously, you don't want to own them as a scam is being structured and implemented, rather than watching them to find those which come paired with ways to obstruct and prevent the success of the effort.
You do need to note that in many of those "scams" the lure being dangled is real, but the scam is in the risk that the value identified will not remain attached to a share. I can't recommend anyone follow my interest in those... but, in those few I find where there is an ability to fix what is being broken on purpose, you stand to benefit from the difference between the value that exists, and that which it has given the "management" of the assets that is intended to destroy value and make them easier to steal.
In those, the bottom line is that shareholders rights are only respected when shareholders are willing to defend their rights. I'm as selective and more about those few I consider for my focus, attention and action on that end of the spectrum. You don't need to succeed in many of those to do well... but, they are VERY time consuming and expensive... given that the entering argument is always going to be the expectation that you will be doing a lot of DD, including paying for accountants, investigators, and lawyers... while taking some big risks that could take a long time to pay off if they do, and still have a very high risk they will not pay off at all.
I do think the approach is useful... and worthy of attention, if you want to learn. The best way to hone your DD skills in sorting middle of the pack stocks from winners and scams... is to be deliberate in paying close attention to some of each. You will learn more, faster, from a few winners and a few scams than you will from years of mucking about pointlessly through the muddle in the middle. And you don't need to own shares of the losers you follow to benefit from them.
NXCO is one of those few I judge has a real opportunity, capable management, etc., that gives them a higher potential for success than most. That doesn't mean there is no risk associated with them, or that a few unique and hugely good things you see in the opportunity matters more than common business risks, etc. It isn't a guarantee of success... but, NXCO isn't one of those fractional % that I'm following for a potential benefit tied to hiring lawyers to deal with the issues they are generating... rather than one of the fractional % I'm following because they CAN succeed, and seem to be doing all they need to do in order to succeed.
In that... a comparison with GM, or any other stock you care to mention is apropos... it is your job to do the DD and the TA and then decide for yourself which are winners and which aren't, when to buy and when to sell, while betting the right way to make money on the trade in the time you intend. Do it right and odds are you will succeed, in time, with a properly diversified and risked effort... whatever the bets you make... as long as you have the chops to make the play work for you.
For now, NXCO meets my risk criteria... GM does not...
Me, too... I'm not much convinced by companies making claims about "this and that"... but, I'm also able to differentiate between a company that is "making claims about this and that" and a company that is doing something MORE than that... which seems a thing that is not in your repertoire ?
"The day they prove to me they are different from all the others is when I turn into a happy shareholder."
It seems there are wildly different abilities between and among investors, in being able to TELL when a company IS performing as it could and should... or something near that. Pretty neat trick, your claim... that you magically become a happy shareholder in those companies you don't own yet and are actively dissing, just until the point when they are able to prove something to you that makes a difference? LOL!!! Hey, wait... I thought you were the TA expert ? LOL!
"Do you fall for all pink sheet PRs and promises? That's a good way to invest lol."
I find it is not really very hard to parse the differences between companies and opportunities, so I divide the focus of my efforts in pinks/OTC into three categories:
First, those VERY few that ARE doing what they say they are, while growing a real business, developing a REAL opportunity, with an effort that CAN work, that is being led by a capable management team who have a high potential to deliver on the promise... while the value being developed remains attached to a share well enough to matter to shareholders. The list of those that I find and follow is fairly small... rarely will have more than four or five that survive the effort in DD to make the list. Picking the winners is rewarding enough to make the effort worthwhile.
Second, the large mass in the middle that are missing one or more elements in execution, management capability, the nature of the opportunity, market potential and promise... that make it much less likely that they can succeed, what ever the other elements are that have been aligned to posture their potential. These take the most effort in DD applied to sorting, given they are the largest and least interesting mass in the market, still with a wide range in things to look for that keep them there, instead of sorted into another category. Most fail... still not because they intend to fail, but for failures of their own making, or misreading or badly timing opportunities or markets. Often they'll only be missing that ONE thing that makes a difference... but, that one thing DOES make a difference... and it can take time to figure out what that thing is that creates risk greater than my threshold of tolerance in some issues. Proper DD takes time... and I do often follow companies for a long time before making a call and pulling the trigger... whether for shooting them or buying them.
Third, those far too numerous to care much enough about to follow them at all closely, that are basically clearly dead, hopeless, or "scam stocks". There are two subsets of those I do care about... those that appear to be so patently fraudulent as to make some effort applied or some comments posted about them worthwhile in the public interest, with little other potential interest in doing anything about it... and a second, similar subset... where the "scam" being intended or operated contains some seed of potential either for preventing the fraud from succeeding, or taking action in having it be unwound, in ways that enable creating unique benefit for shareholders. Obviously, you don't want to own them as a scam is being structured and implemented, rather than watching them to find those which come paired with ways to obstruct and prevent the success of the effort.
You do need to note that in many of those "scams" the lure being dangled is real, but the scam is in the risk that the value identified will not remain attached to a share. I can't recommend anyone follow my interest in those... but, in those few I find where there is an ability to fix what is being broken on purpose, you stand to benefit from the difference between the value that exists, and that which it has given the "management" of the assets that is intended to destroy value and make them easier to steal.
In those, the bottom line is that shareholders rights are only respected when shareholders are willing to defend their rights. I'm as selective and more about those few I consider for my focus, attention and action on that end of the spectrum. You don't need to succeed in many of those to do well... but, they are VERY time consuming and expensive... given that the entering argument is always going to be the expectation that you will be doing a lot of DD, including paying for accountants, investigators, and lawyers... while taking some big risks that could take a long time to pay off if they do, and still have a very high risk they will not pay off at all.
I do think the approach is useful... and worthy of attention, if you want to learn. The best way to hone your DD skills in sorting middle of the pack stocks from winners and scams... is to be deliberate in paying close attention to some of each. You will learn more, faster, from a few winners and a few scams than you will from years of mucking about pointlessly through the muddle in the middle. And you don't need to own shares of the losers you follow to benefit from them.
NXCO is one of those few I judge has a real opportunity, capable management, etc., that gives them a higher potential for success than most. That doesn't mean there is no risk associated with them, or that a few unique and hugely good things you see in the opportunity matters more than common business risks, etc. It isn't a guarantee of success... but, NXCO isn't one of those fractional % that I'm following for a potential benefit tied to hiring lawyers to deal with the issues they are generating... rather than one of the fractional % I'm following because they CAN succeed, and seem to be doing all they need to do in order to succeed.
In that... a comparison with GM, or any other stock you care to mention is apropos... it is your job to do the DD and the TA and then decide for yourself which are winners and which aren't, when to buy and when to sell, while betting the right way to make money on the trade in the time you intend. Do it right and odds are you will succeed, in time, with a properly diversified and risked effort... whatever the bets you make... as long as you have the chops to make the play work for you.
For now, NXCO meets my risk criteria... GM does not...
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