I know from direct conversation with one of the three companies 'going in another direction' that they in fact were looking at 717/RD, at least they were a month ago. That doesn't mean that they are making offers, but they were at least doing DD. So there are no absolutes, even in the companies who seem to be moving away from CNS.
If I were developing a roster of companies still possibly in RD play, I'd include the mid-size companies who make a lot of revenue from hospital based sales; the several other companies not included in the three mentioned that have significant pain franchises.
Sleep apnea is a different, larger, indication which requires a neurology sales force that could target outpatient sleep centers. Cephalon would now seem unlikely given the number of acquisitions they've made lately. Big Pharmas with insomnia drugs would be a start, Pfizer would not be included, since they were so burned with indiplon.
Finally--I personally do not assume that no discussions are yet possible for ADHD even though they don't have POC for CX-1837. Schering-Plough has an interest obviously, and I would not assume that the buyout offer precludes relatively small expenditures (I'm sure the contract precludes anything significant). Shire (Adderall/Vyvanse) and Novartis (Concerta) have substantial interests (especially Shire) in ADHD.
This is less likely, but possible.
The least likely, albeit not totally impossible, would be a deal related to neurodegeneration. But without a high impact with any human data, that is highly unlikely, unless it was on really lousy terms.
So I am not yet assuming that a PIPE is now sure to be the next step. Still roughly 50/50.
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