>> Even if he manages to engineer a turnaround in the economy,
There is no "if" needed in the above sentence. The president's plan will turn the economy to growth by year end.
>> There's nothing "counter-cyclical" about government spending, and no politician ever raises taxes when times are good,
Apparently you were not paying attention to economic news in the US from 1992 to 2000. The same people were screeching about raising taxes to close the budget deficit then, as they are doing now. Taxes were raised in spite of them, and the budget turned to massive surpluses, that were squandered by the incompetent that followed.
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