SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Fox13]

Hi TJ! At a first glance I also felt tempted to call it names. But a closer look at a weekly chart might lead to a surprising conclusion. Starting with March 05, the rise of the DOW was contained between two ascending arcs. The downturn which we all now consider dramatic - in retrospect - happened only after a series of neurotic moves that took place within a zone of congestion (red dotted rectangle), well protected under a “dome“ engineered by a slowly down -turning channel. In October 07 we reached the highest point of this “extended flat”. Later, an impulsive down-move was contained in a well defined parabolic segment which we might call for simplicity a ”pregnant channel”. The transitional geometry of the system suggests that it will now morph into a new flat - a mirror image of the one that occurred at the top of the curve. This flat could be initiated by an UP corrective move.

More assertive people (like NM) predict an aggressive “RAMPO” with three successive targets, to be achieved by the Mar Op. Exp. Paradoxically, Fibonacci seems to be moderately on NM’s side. I approximated NM’s predictions on the chart bellow. If they happen, then we will witness a “V shaped partial recovery”. Are the market forces able to engineer such a stellar performance in the present fundamental conditions of our economy? We shall see…