the problem w/ your theory jim, is that in the past AB has been pretty good w/ follow through. If AB and the rest of the insiders are not selling then the share price will become buying-sensitive. There is no denying the scenario IF they are true to their word.
I think the bottom buying cleaned up all the loose shares the queston is when will longs throw in the towel and make back some of the money that the lost? I would say the past dilution put investors in "dont give a crap" mode, hence many such will not sell since they've already written every thing off. Others will hold for a possible huge move. i'd say the dynamics of the past favor the odds that more will hold than sell. If that is correct this will continue to move upward.