Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

US/EU 2010 Sales Forecasts for Antiviral Sectors



In this graphic from the market-research company, Datamonitor, “current” means 2007. Although the three antiviral markets are growing strongly and are expected to continue growing at a high rate, the reason for the growth is different in each case:

• HCV market growth will be powered by the availability of better treatments, which will improve the motivation for people with chronic HCV infection to seek treatment. Currently, only about 2% of chronic HCV carriers worldwide seek treatment, despite their having about a 40% chance of being cured. The reason so few seek treatment is that the standard of care, consisting of pegylated interferon and ribavirin, is hard to tolerate.

• HBV market growth will be driven by increased diagnosis, particularly in China, and the advent of combination therapy. However, inasmuch as HBV integrates into the host genome, it probably can’t be cured outright as HCV can.

• HIV market growth is virtually assured because patients on HIV are living longer than ever before and they must take their meds forever to remain healthy. Moreover, recent legislation will increase the number of people who will be routinely tested for HIV, and the latest treatment guidelines from medical societies recommend starting patients on drugs at higher CD4 cell counts (i.e. earlier in the course of their disease) than the previous guidelines.