Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Market shares of Copaxone and Tysabri

A few points before we close out this thread:

1. We don’t disagree on the MS market dynamics as much as you might think. We both recognize that Copaxone gained patient share and dollar share during 2008 and Tysabri flatlined in the fourth quarter. The main difference between your assessment and my assessment is that you consider the Tysabri flatlining in 4Q08 to be a temporary phenomenon and hence you want to focus on the full year’s results. I, on the other hand, consider the 4Q08 results to be more indicative of the state of the MS market than the full year’s results, and I’m not so sure the Tysabri flatlining is temporary.

2. Manufacturer’s ASP is not a “straw man”; to the contrary, it’s the only way to convert between dollar sales and number of Rx’s during a given time period.

3. Tysabri is an unusual case because the TOUCH program restricts access, allowing BIIB/ELN to have greater control over retail pricing—and less variation in ASP—than is the case for most drugs.

4. I added your post to the MNTA ReadMeFirst even though I think you’re drawing the wrong inferences about the state of the worldwide MS market.

Regards, Dew