Biotech Values

[srsmgja]

<< "Tysabri's unit increase for Just the 4th quarter was 6%"
How is this so? Tysabri sales were lower in the Q4 than in Q3. Tysabri has a window of growth, but it is going to quickly close. >>

Master

The lower sales figure was explained on the BIIB conf call relating to a reduced number of shipping weeks in 4Q.

The actual patient numbers were from the press releases from both ELN and BIIB. Unless you believe both companies legal staffs are allowing the companies to falsify their numbers, I think you might consider accepting their numbers.

Regarding the "window of growth", it is my opinion (and I could be wrong) that both Cladrabine and FTY-720 are not going to get past the FDA very easily. According to the limited data released thus far, both drugs have major safety concerns. Neither drug would seem to have an efficacy advantage over Tysabri. Their only advantage is the clear convenience of an oral medicine. Will that trump the significant safety issues associated with long term use in a chronic illness? Not likely with the old FDA, and certainly not likely with the new administration's FDA, IMO.