AI
Wednesday, February 18, 2009 9:22:03 AM
Market Pessimism continues, and Oil is also sinking below $35. The Obama stimulus package has not inspired any confidence. The technical indicators are not inspiring either.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Wall-Street-likely-fail-retest/story.aspx?guid={FB91F881-DFC8-4137-AA09-97376AC65312}
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- "Today's close was one of the damnedest closes I've ever seen," Richard Russell wrote Tuesday evening.
...
Russell, who is editor of Dow Theory Letters, continued: "I thought that President Obama outlawed torture in the US. Wall Street is not listening. Today the Dow flirted within 1 point of its Nov. 20 bear-market low of 7,552.29, keeping all Dow Theorists on the edge of their seats. Would the bear market low be taken out or wouldn't it? The answer today was 'not quite,' as the Dow closed at its low of the day. And I had to wonder, were the gods of the market teasing us? And what will tomorrow bring?"
Russell, for his part, hazards no answer to the latter question, preferring to let the market itself tell its own story in due time.
But, being impatient, I wanted to know what light the sentiment data might shed on this question. Will the stock market successfully pass its retest of the Nov. 20 lows? Or will it fail, in which case new bear-market lows are ahead?
To gain insight, I analyzed how sentiment behaved in the past whenever the market successfully retested a bear-market low. Unfortunately, I found a marked difference between sentiment on those occasions and the mood that prevails today.
.............
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Wall-Street-likely-fail-retest/story.aspx?guid={FB91F881-DFC8-4137-AA09-97376AC65312}
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- "Today's close was one of the damnedest closes I've ever seen," Richard Russell wrote Tuesday evening.
...
Russell, who is editor of Dow Theory Letters, continued: "I thought that President Obama outlawed torture in the US. Wall Street is not listening. Today the Dow flirted within 1 point of its Nov. 20 bear-market low of 7,552.29, keeping all Dow Theorists on the edge of their seats. Would the bear market low be taken out or wouldn't it? The answer today was 'not quite,' as the Dow closed at its low of the day. And I had to wonder, were the gods of the market teasing us? And what will tomorrow bring?"
Russell, for his part, hazards no answer to the latter question, preferring to let the market itself tell its own story in due time.
But, being impatient, I wanted to know what light the sentiment data might shed on this question. Will the stock market successfully pass its retest of the Nov. 20 lows? Or will it fail, in which case new bear-market lows are ahead?
To gain insight, I analyzed how sentiment behaved in the past whenever the market successfully retested a bear-market low. Unfortunately, I found a marked difference between sentiment on those occasions and the mood that prevails today.
.............
