MTB,
Good to hear from you, and thanks for a great post. While I previously made this post about deals, I was also thinking of this as a rationale for why GTCB has value for a buyout. I too hope we are headed for a buyout as it provides the only way for shareholders to take get value, and for GTCB's technology to have a real impact. Cox needs to be fired because there is essentially zero evidence that he has the ability to match a companies finances with its goals. Actually, I don't care if he is fired, just that a buyout occurs. I just wanted to repeat why I think the GTCB pipeline has great potential value to a buyer. It was in response to some of Dew's criticisms. I made a few modifications.
Big pharma and mid-sized pharma make deals all the time for drugs still clinical trials. These deals happen for phase I, phase II and phase III staged drugs. The payoffs are usually many years down the road, especially for the phase I and phase II drugs, but sometimes even for phase III if it involves diseases like cancer. Pharma makes a bet with an uncertain payoff (i.e. outcome of the trials) and many fail. This doesn't stop pharma from making deals. The dollar amount of the deal is based probability of success, which correlates to the stage of trials, and the potential market size if the drug is successful. There is no guarantee of success, only a probability.
What hurt GTCB is the idea that the FDA might never approve transgenic drugs or keep delaying. This meant that no matter how good the drug was, it couldn't be sold. That uncertainty has been removed by FDA approval so now the multli-billion dollar potential of GTCB's pipeline is real and more akin to other pipelines containing drugs being developed using cell culture. In fact, there is an advantage for GTCB because we know the plasma proteins will be sucessful as therapy, and so will the monoclonal antibodies. We also know the markets will be huge. The two uncertainties, whether the drug will be successful and the market size, usually present in drug development deals have been removed. Yes, FOB legislation needs to be approved, but it doesn't need to be approved, this week, this month or even this year for deals to be made. It will be approved, hopefully sooner rather than later, but it will be done.
As I stated above, pharma always makes significant bets on drugs they don't know will payoff. I don't understand why you think pharma wouldn't make a bet when they know GTCB has goats making plasma proteins that already have a billion dollar market from plasma derived sources. I don't understand why you think pharma wouldn't make a bet when they know it will payoff after FOB legislation is passed. They won't be sitting around twiddling their thumbs while they wait for FOB legislation to pass. Rather the time will be used for maximizing purification proceedures and tests to confirm bio-equivalence so they can hit the ground running when FOB legislation does get passed.
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