Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Baraclude sales ramp and HBV market:

Almost four years after reaching the market, Baraclude sales have reached an impressive annualized rate of $620M, but growth has slowed to a trickle. The cause of the plateau is almost certainly the approval and launch of Viread for HBV in August 2008.

Baraclude’s sales were painfully slow at the outset because existing HBV patients do not switch meds unless they suffer a viral breakthrough, but they picked up nicely during the third year on the market.

4th year—first 9 months: $435M ($620M run rate in 4Q08)
3rd full year (Apr07-Mar08): $348M
2nd full year (Apr06-Mar07): $117M*
1st full year- (Apr05-Mar06): $23M

*Added to AASLD guidelines Feb 2007;
Japan, EU launches Jul 2006.