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Friday, January 23, 2009 12:35:55 PM
Weekly Technical Commentary by Art Huprich - Friday Morning 01/23
Within the context of a continuing short-term down trend by the stock market indices (short-term support for the DJIA = 7936 and 7882, for the SPX = 804 to 800), coming on the heels of the EPS report Wednesday night from AAPL and weak economic reports, the stock market futures were lower, but not in “size”, prior to the open yesterday. However, when the “cash-cow,” otherwise known as the “First National Bank of Redmond” (thank you Bob Faulkner on the website Real Money), I mean MSFT pre-released, all “heck” broke out. Shortly after noon the DJIA had recorded its intraday low, down 271 points. At the bell, MSFT fell $2.27 and accounted for 18 of the 105 point decline by the DJIA. Also, since MSFT is the highest weighted stock in the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ underperformed, falling 41 points, or 2.76%. On the NYSE volume contracted to 1.54 billion shares. There were 1705 net declining issues, weaker than the DJIA.
As a follow up to my recent discussions, including Wednesday’s breakdown, about the U.S. government fixed income market, the 10-Year Yield Index (TNX/25.94 = 2.594%) completed a bottoming pattern, meaning higher yields. Initial resistance = 26.68 (50-DMA, which will marginally change each day) and 27.50 to 28 (2.75% to 2.80%). While some type of pullback would likely occur first, I could even envision a level closer to 32 (3.20%), based on a price target and a previous breakdown point (resistance).
Conclusion
As shown by the following chart, after much consternation on my part and still within the context of an intermediate-term down trend, I am going to change my opinion of Gold ($858.80) and classify the short-term chart configuration as “positive.”
For full technical Commentary and Charts:
http://www.rjf.com/technical_commentary.asp
George.
Click on "In reply to", to see any past commentary.
Within the context of a continuing short-term down trend by the stock market indices (short-term support for the DJIA = 7936 and 7882, for the SPX = 804 to 800), coming on the heels of the EPS report Wednesday night from AAPL and weak economic reports, the stock market futures were lower, but not in “size”, prior to the open yesterday. However, when the “cash-cow,” otherwise known as the “First National Bank of Redmond” (thank you Bob Faulkner on the website Real Money), I mean MSFT pre-released, all “heck” broke out. Shortly after noon the DJIA had recorded its intraday low, down 271 points. At the bell, MSFT fell $2.27 and accounted for 18 of the 105 point decline by the DJIA. Also, since MSFT is the highest weighted stock in the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ underperformed, falling 41 points, or 2.76%. On the NYSE volume contracted to 1.54 billion shares. There were 1705 net declining issues, weaker than the DJIA.
As a follow up to my recent discussions, including Wednesday’s breakdown, about the U.S. government fixed income market, the 10-Year Yield Index (TNX/25.94 = 2.594%) completed a bottoming pattern, meaning higher yields. Initial resistance = 26.68 (50-DMA, which will marginally change each day) and 27.50 to 28 (2.75% to 2.80%). While some type of pullback would likely occur first, I could even envision a level closer to 32 (3.20%), based on a price target and a previous breakdown point (resistance).
Conclusion
As shown by the following chart, after much consternation on my part and still within the context of an intermediate-term down trend, I am going to change my opinion of Gold ($858.80) and classify the short-term chart configuration as “positive.”
For full technical Commentary and Charts:
http://www.rjf.com/technical_commentary.asp
George.
Click on "In reply to", to see any past commentary.
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