Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: IFN use in HCV

I'd be willing to bet that in 10-15 years or so, when we have the first long term follow up data on SVRs for antiviral without ifn cocktails that the relapse rate is much higher than with regimens including ifn. Instead of <<1%/year it is over 3%yr (WAG).

This is subsumed within Boger’s statement I referred to in the previous message. I.e., the 85% number that Boger cited is the true cure rate and the reported SVR rate may have to be modestly higher than this to allow for “late” relapses.

All this is a “second order” issue insofar as we’re talking about the difference between 85% and, say, 88%. Whether Boger’s Threshold is 85% or 88% does not fundamentally alter Boger’s thesis that the Law of Diminishing Returns will make it economically unattractive for companies to seek even higher SVR rates.